Systematic errors in searches for nanohertz gravitational waves

Abstract

A number of pulsar timing arrays have recently reported preliminary evidence for the existence of a nanohertz frequency gravitational wave background. These analyses rely on noise analyses, which are inherently complex due to the many astrophysical and instrumental factors. We investigate whether realistic systematic errors, stemming from misspecified noise models that fail to capture salient features of the pulsar timing noise, could bias the evidence for gravitational waves. We consider two plausible forms of misspecification: small instrumental pulse arrival time offsets and radio-frequency-dependent time-correlated noise. Using simulated data, we calculate the distribution of the commonl..